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Predicting College Readiness in an Increasingly Competitive Society
American students are going to need more and better reading, math, science, and problem solving skills if they are to succeed in college and enter the workforce in our increasingly competitive society. Without these skills and education beyond high school, it may be difficult to earn a living or to support a family. Consequently, educators need better data to inform them about how their students are performing relative to college readiness standards, data that will allow them to identify and assist students who aspire to go to college but are not on track. To help our partners more accurately assess the college readiness of their students, NWEA researchers have created a college readiness linking study, with which students’ MAP scores can be used to predict their college readiness as measured by their performance on ACT’s series of assessments - EXPLORE (grades 8 and 9), PLAN (grade 10), and the ACT (grade 11 and 12).
This linking study is now available. The linking study contains estimated cut scores with 75-90% accuracy in predicting whether students will meet/exceed ACT college readiness benchmarks, and probability tables that give the likelihood of meeting college readiness benchmarks, given observed MAP scores taken in the same school year. Note, this study does not predict the ACT (or PLAN or EXPLORE) score; only the probability of meeting/exceeding the college readiness benchmarks.
The study was authored by Kingsbury Center researchers Mike Dahlin, Branin Bowe, and John Cronin, with contributions from Bob Theaker and Don Draper. You can access the report here.
Have any correlation studies been done on PSAT scores and MAP data?
I'm interested in the same topic. The national debate has (more, many?) parents attuned to the idea of college readiness at ever earlier grades. There's great potential for MAP to serve as a guide to readiness.
To that end it would be powerful to go back (where the data allow) and see what the RIT and percentiles looked like in 4th or 6th grade for students who hit the benchmark in 8th, 9th or 10th grade.
This is welcome news to many progressive school distircts, however, the question of application still remains unanswered. Though currently in practice, can 8th grade percentiles reliably be applied to creating CCR benchmarks for lower grades? (The study clearly shows that cut score percentiles change in 8th, 9th, and 10th grade) Will RIT scores matter more than percentiles, or will CCR always be a fluctuating benchmark? Can future growth be accurately predicted to create multi-year RTI projections to meet CCR benchmarks? These are the questions our district is facing, and I'm sure we are not alone.
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